The Problem With Certainty

One of the things I have noticed as I have gotten older is that experience does not necessarily make you more certain. In fact, I think it has had the opposite effect on me.

Early in my career, I believed there was a right answer to most problems. If you understood the issue, had enough information, and knew what you were doing, you should be able to figure it out. There is still some truth to that, but after spending a lot of years managing projects, businesses, people, and all of the problems that come with them, I have learned that the important decisions are rarely that clean.

There are things you don't know. People see the same problem differently. Priorities compete with each other. Sometimes the information you need simply doesn't exist yet. You make the best decision you can with what you have in front of you and then find out later whether you were right.

I don't think that means experience becomes less valuable. Quite the opposite. Experience gives you a larger collection of things to draw from. You remember what worked, what didn't, what you missed, and probably most importantly, the times when you were absolutely convinced you were right and weren't. That last part stays with you.

I have also learned to be a little suspicious when everyone agrees too quickly. It feels good when a room comes together around an idea, particularly when it is your idea, but agreement isn't necessarily evidence that the idea is a good one. Sometimes the most valuable person in the room is the one willing to ask the question nobody else is asking.

This is one of the reasons I have become so interested in artificial intelligence. I am less interested in having AI give me answers than I am in seeing whether it can help me think about a problem differently. I can give it an idea and ask it to challenge the assumptions behind it. I can ask what I might be overlooking or have it approach the same issue from several different directions. Sometimes the response is useful. Sometimes it is completely wrong. Both can be interesting. The important part is that I still have to decide what to do with it.

Maybe that is where my thinking about certainty has landed, at least for now. I don't need to know everything before making a decision, and I don't need everyone to agree with me. I want enough information to make a reasonable judgment, enough experience to recognize what matters, and enough curiosity to keep looking when something doesn't quite make sense. After that, you make the call and see what happens. And if you learn something that changes your mind, change your mind.